Raskin, P., Tariq Banuri, Gilberto Gallopín, Pablo Gutman, Al Hammond, Robert W. Kates, and Rob Swart. 2002. Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead. Boston: Stockholm Environment Institute, p. 1-45.

1.4.3.1 HUMAN-ENVIRONMENT INTERACTIONS: Imaginatively sketched- Scenarios Analytic efforts to describe human-environment futures vary between two poles of push or pull: projecting the past and present into the future (push) and moving the present towards desired or away from feared futures (pull). As products of science, these scenario efforts are often simply sketched but rooted in long-term models, trends, and observations (2.4.3.3). But they are also highly imaginative in their assumptions as to future events, processes, and probably most important values. The Reading, a product of the only global scenario group inclusive of scenario-creators from both the north and the south, includes both the push of “business as usual” and policy reform projections and imaginative pulls of hope and fear.

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